How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19
6,427,367
Published 2020-03-27
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: • Exponential growth and epidemics
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipyn…
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data…
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19…
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
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All Comments (21)
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When you can't go outside so you sit modelling death rates to take your mind off things...
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It’s this kind of information and education that we need on actual news reports, not just constant reports of the numbers without much context or graphs
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So sad that YouTube demonetize these videos
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Even after being weeks old, this is the best news coverage I've seen yet.
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This is EXACTLY the thing that I feel I’ve been missing in my obsessive news and stat consumption.
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The question of "when does this end" "when do we see the light at the end of the tunnel" is huge to me right now. Thank you for offering a way to look at it that might offer signals for the questions I have.
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“In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George
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Spoiler alert: we didn’t
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Never been more grateful for calming background music.
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In my view, the fact you pointed out the "caviats?" of this analysis is the biggest take away. You just educated so many people that a number is a representation of reality and is meaningless without a context. Thank you
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"don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there
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I forgot about trying to flatten the curve. This feels like a decade ago.
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"Beautiful horrible graph" - Henry Reich, 2020
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This graph gives me the feeling of 'When you fail a test, but so do the boys.'
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how do people not understand that this video is almost 2 YEARS old
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"Are you winning son?" Gets a whole new meaning
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I live in Russia and I am afraid to imagine how many people are really infected here, no one observes the quarantine . I closed my home with my family and survive on the money I earn
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This, of course, assumes that governments are truthful about infection statistics.
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so, it's 2022 now... might be interesting to see a two year revisit of this topic.. how did vaccinations change the graphs visualized here? what about testing pretty much becoming routine in a lot of places? how about the rampant spread of new variants vs the spread documented here?
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You will know. When mainstream media starts slowing down on constant talk about Covid, that is when we start beating it.
