Why LESS Sensitive Tests Might Be Better

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Published 2021-01-14
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This video written & produced in collaboration with Aatish Bhatia, www.aatishb.com/

This video is about how cheap, fast, and LESS sensitive rapid antigen tests might be better for screening (& maybe surveillance) than PCR COVID tests due to the nature of contagiousness/infectiveness at various points on the viral load trajectory of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID sars-COV-2 carriers.

REFERENCES

Thanks to Daniel Larremore for feedback on early versions of this video larremorelab.github.io/

Rapid Antigen Testing:

COVID-19 testing: One size does not fit all. science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6525/126

Rethinking Covid-19 Test Sensitivity — A Strategy for Containment. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2025631

Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening. advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/1/eabd5393.abstr…

The effectiveness of population-wide, rapid antigen test based screening in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in Slovakia. (pre-print, not yet peer reviewed) www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.02.2024064…

Effective Testing and Screening for Covid-19. www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2…

Brown University & Harvard University modeling of COVID-19 testing shortfall. globalepidemics.org/testing-targets/

Fast Coronavirus Tests are coming. media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-0…

Open letter signed by epidemiologists and infectious disease experts supporting widespread & frequent rapid antigen testing for COVID-19: www.rapidtests.org/expert-letter

More information on various COVID-19 tests: chs.asu.edu/diagnostics-commons/testing-commons

Field performance and public health response using the BinaxNOW Rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen detection assay during community-based testing. academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/c…

Performance of an Antigen-Based Test for Asymptomatic and Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Testing at Two University Campuses. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm695152a3.htm

Asymptomatic Spread:

People without symptoms spread virus in more than half of cases, CDC model finds www.washingtonpost.com/science/2021/01/07/covid-as…

(More than half of all) SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms. jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullartic…

Three Quarters of People with SARS-CoV-2 Infection are Asymptomatic: Analysis of English Household Survey Data. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7549754/

Viral Load Curve:

SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in acute infections. (pre-print, not yet peer reviewed)
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.2021704…


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Created by Henry Reich

All Comments (21)
  • @danycashking
    I love the fact that you addressed some of the caveats in the end, many people often take everything at face value without questioning the information that didn't make it into the video, adding caveats at the end really helps people realise a 3min video is not all the information
  • @GaiaDblade
    The law of diminishing returns: 90% sensitivity only costs 10% the price.
  • @WanderTheNomad
    I like how they said physical distancing over social distancing.
  • It is worth mentioning that while the rapid antigen test is 80-90% as effective as PCR, it's not like taking it multiple times will much improve its screening capacity. If the virus is present at low viral loads, there is no replacement for PCR. Seems to me that if you are interested in visiting an at risk family member or are getting ready for an operation, go for the PCR.
  • I live in a homeless shelter. They give these tests everyday. I have been tested about 6(negative :) tests so far. Kinda blown away by the what they have spent so far. I’m just one of hundreds here.
  • @drivera0502
    The rapid tests vary in sensitivity. There is one where sensitivity is 80% when the person is showing symptoms but only 40% in asymptomatic individuals. Specificity was 98% in both cases
  • @piranha031091
    So it's really "The Case for faster, cheaper tests", despite their lower sensitivity.
  • @sirmartin88
    One small note from me as a citizen of Slovakia, which study was mentioned here. Implementation in Slovakia was done in such way, that there were really hard punishments for people who decided not to join nation wide screening tests, therefore lot of people got tested and were willing to even wait hours in queue. Problem is that these queues didn't followed social distancing since there was literally not sufficient space for queue following social distancing. Therefore after this nation wide screening rate infected people rise dramatically. I personally got infected between 2 rounds (was negative after first screening but positive after second one, yet following all precautions)
  • @user-jp7tw3sd3x
    PCR test takes about 8 hours lab time to be processed. It's not days slow, unless the lab is overloaded and samples needs days to be transported. PCR sensitivity is definitely not a problem. You can exploit it to test groups, instead individuals. You mix the samples of 5-10 people into a single test sample. If the result is negative, then nobody in the group is infectious. If the result is positive, then you have to test the individual samples.
  • @m136dalie
    Worth mentioning that in medicine sensitivity refers to the "true positive" rate of a test, ie of how many people with the disease will the test come back positive. This means that RT-PCR tests are actually not very sensitive at all, rather their advantage is the specificity, which is the "true negative" rate. I know this is pedantic and jargon, but medical jargon is nevertheless important.
  • @MusicLukeSeven
    I think it’s still a huge advantage to identify infected people in the very late stages since you could then test or quarantine their close contacts and catch up the chain that was kicked off by that person
  • @enzheli9874
    for countries where covid is out of control this makes some sense, in countries like Australia, China, NZ, Singapore etc. the more sensitive test is essential in the screening to prevent foreign case influx in lieu of local transmission.
  • @arthur5405
    Literally amazed that you provided caveats in the end and how you provide the information by graph.
  • @kr8771
    i love how you masterfully condense important information into easily digestible chunks. great job and thank you
  • @sandwich2473
    I adore that music Dr. Schroeder Silent City one of the best tracks to ever exist
  • @geo-wi4tv
    it only makes sense to me to implement antigen testing when the infection rate is very high. However, once it is not as prevalent in the community then it makes more sense to use pcr.
  • @MaoTheCameraman
    Which source is related to the "Increase of COVID testing needed" per country?
  • Really thanks for this video! Currently Im working with a research group in Imperial College London to develop fast graphene field effect transistor lateral tests with sensitivity greater than 90% and results come within few minutes (reusable*). This video will help us to build stronger arguments for GFET lateral tests! Many Thanks.
  • @matthew13579
    So great!!! I wish we had this video 6 months ago!