Peak Oil Chat: Simon Michaux, Iver Lofving and others

Damn I missed this live.

Once we start getting to peak oil, the value of oil will keep rising: 100$, 150$, 200$, 300$, etc, over the long term. I think it would be cool to see a well thought out analysis of what breaks down at what price point. Which industries break first? what supply chains break down at what cost point? at what oil cost do tankers stop running oil back and forth for refining? Like a cost structure breakdown of various things would highlight this.

Something I really struggle with is the constant cognitive dissonance of knowing we need to prepare, while everyone around is going on business as usual. Really messes with your brain when it feels like you are trapped between two conflicting worlds...

Thanks Simon and Andrii, excellent presentations. I especially liked one prepared by Andrii, but would suggest to go through slides slower and devote few minutes to the each one. About EROI data - it was always kind of mystery to me in terms of how it is calculated and what it signifies, but can only trust that due diligence was done by inventors of the criteria. On fission nuclear energy (thorium, uranium) - sure, these energy sources can be exhausted some day, but i don't consider 1000 year to be a "blip" as it for sure enough time to adapt or develop some alternatives, say, fusion nuclear. Anyway, very impressive presentation, great thanks

This is the highest quality comment section iv seen

@simon. here's a suggestion for dealing with the solar people. Perhaps they don't understand the context under which you're saying solar doesn't work. Instead of saying "solar won't work", you could explain in a little more detail about it's limitations. In fact, solar can work to a small degree. there may not be enough lithium in the world but that doesn't mean we can't have some people use it, especially if they're in a sunny area.

Pls clarify about cement - Simon mentioned its very energy intensive - sure, but do you take into account: a) how much longer buildings from it can last; b) cement's energy energy can be local sourced, say, wood. As for Cuba and Russia sustainability examples, take into account that their own locals are not happy with the result. Putin can make Russians vote for him, but smart part of the society just runs out of the country.

The global pop is about to drop like reindeer island. Afterwards, there will be plenty for most. But without some sort of stable society like Simon is proposing the whole thing will happen again to future generations or perhaps us again. So we can't afford to squander this opportunity. Just my .02 cents.

Andrij you said there's 8 years of oil left? That seems outrageous. How is that possible? Thousands of companies are making 20 year investments. How would they not have heard of this?

At the beginning you use this subjective term "carrying capacity", referencing various countries ability i think to sustain their current population. What standard of living are you using as a metric from which country, because you must be aware the present day power consumption of an average citizen of North America (U.S. or Canada) is somewhere in the region of 250 kw/h's per day, to afford them the quality of life to which they have become accustomed, approx double that of a person say, living in Europe, and have you factored in the wealth inequality within a particular countries borders to arrive at these statistics ?

First 😋

Without Jesus there would have been, and in fact were, other prophets preaching similar messages, for example, Siddartha Gautama, AKA the Buddha. Jesus was not unique. In fact it is the message which is important, not the messenger and we ought not worship a messenger any more than we should shoot him. What has gone wrong with Christianity is exactly that, the worship of the messenger and forgetting the message. In fact it doesn't matter if Jesus or the Buddha even existed because the message will arise as circumstances allow.