Are we running out of oil?

What do you think about the end of oil? When do you think it will come, if ever?

idk if we're running out of oil, but we're sure as shit running out of planet

Production of CONVENTIONAL oil did indeed peak in 2005 and has been going sideways even since. UNCONVENTIONAL (Tar sands/deepwater/heavy) oil bought us a few years more. Then in 2014, due to 0% interest rates, shale oil became possible for a few years more. We're down to one big shale oil/frakking field in Texas, and when thats gone, we're in trouble. Most of the rest of the world cant do shale oil.

To ponder the idea of stimulating increased demand for oil in an era of runaway green house effect is psychotic.

Hey, DW, you should do a video on energy blindness

One very important very rapid trend driving slowing oil demand is EV adoption in China. The boom has been insanely rapid EVs have gone from 5% of car sales in 2020, to 35% in 2023, and there are realistic forecasts it'll grow to over 50% by 2024. China alone makes up ~14% of global oil demand. Assuming the transport sector is around half of that, then this trend alone is a major downward pressure on global oil demand. When you consider that cheap Chinese EVs are driving adoption in other countries as well, the effect magnifies.

It just blows me away to see so many people here in Georgia driving huge gas guzzling trucks /SUVs.... just wastefully burning the chit out of fuel....

"40 years of oil supply'. Well, the stuff actually has to be explored, financed, organized, regulated, pumped out of the ground, refined and reaching the customers. Here some fact: After several severe cuts by OPEC and "failing demand" oil prices are by about $ 90.00. Nice cheap. I see it daily on the gas station and in the grocery stores. US shale oil production might peak within 2 or 3 years and then decline or likelier become much more costly. Meanwhile the world is running out of a lot of minerals needed for the new technologies. Even copper demand might exceed supply this year already with very predictable consequences. To just supply electrical Vehicles in the near future the power grids in many areas have to be doubled or tripled, something that is unachievable for a lot of reasons. What oil producing countries loose on tonnage they will easily gain on sky high prices for fossil fuel in the near future.

We’ve never actually used less of an energy source in our history. Bill Rees, the ecologist that first conceived of the carbon-footprint, has some great lectures on YouTube about overshoot and what it means for our species. Fair warning: you can’t unlearn what he can teach you. In one if his lectures he notes that, despite making numerous transitions from one energy source to the next, we’ve only ever added. For instance, the human species burns more biomass today than it did in the 19th century. Thinking green energy will save us is obtuse. Saw somebody else mention Michaeux - also great lectures on the math behind a renewable transition. 2024 - 2025 is the projected shale peak, and then watch out. The importance of oil to our society will become apparent to anybody paying attention.

the thing is there is more oil around the world than people are measuring as people in certain area's have left their oil in the ground such as off the coast of south ameriaca there is some untapped oil reserves. also the lie about being cheaper to produce electricity through renewables is a lie as it is government subsidized and still raising utility rates.

One thing I really wish we would find an alternative for is manufacturing oil, I work in manufacturing and we use so much oil, not for energy but for lubricant. It would be great if there was an alternative, but so far nothing works quite as well or is available. Also in the last year or so, I've switched over to using a cargo e-bike for 90%+ my commutes (charged 100% with my solar panels), and let me tell you the thrill of being able to commute without having to even think of the price of electricity or oil is exhilarating. Everyone is complaining about oil/gas prices and I'm zipping by on sunlight collected in my yard. It's hard for me to even imagine things like the gas crisis from the 1970s and how people literally thought they wouldn't be able to get to work because oil wasn't available. We just have so many great options for alternatives now... solar panels, batteries, hybrid systems, LEDs, etc... future is great! Let's hit peak oil!

What your report completely ignores are prosecutions against oil companies by the EU and others. This will be disastrous for them.

The reason companies/nations, are pumping as much as they can is because they need it out of the ground and payed for before the market collapses. They know full well what's coming and could probably give you a year, month, day, and time when the market is expected to collapse. That has led to two opposing strategies, the one I outlined above, and another which is cutting supply now to get top dollar for what is sold. This cutting supply is why prices are rising right now, otherwise they'd be falling like a stone rolling down a mountain side.

I think it is cute how folks say solar is cheaper than coal, but coal is base load, and solar is intermittent. It's like saying apples are cheaper than apple pie. Solar panels are cheap enough, lets talk about solar panels + sufficient batteries to have the same number of 9's of reliability.

Back in the day we were worried oil would run out, now I'm scared it won't.

If renewable energy really is cheaper than oil, why is oil used at all?

There was a mention around 0:58 that "before 2000, electric vehicles were nearly unheard of." That is not quite true. I remember reading that in the 1930s (in the US) there were a lot of electric cars around! But I guess two things happened - battery technology did not keep up with IC engines, and, the oil lobby won!

Conventional oil, which is what they drilled in Hubert’s day, did hit a production peak in 2006. All growth in oil production since then has been in shale oil and tar sands.

Just one more thing… a barrel of oil costs $80 - $90 bucks right now, and can perform the equivalent of 4.5 years of human labour.

Oil has peaked already and crude oil is getting lighter, meaning less diesel in each barrel. Our civilization runs on diesel.