Tesla Model Y & Model 3 - Waiting May Pay Off BIG!!

Bearded Tesla Guy
Bearded Tesla Guy
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Published 2024-05-31
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 continue to be the largest volume vehicles at Tesla. Following a quarter of much lower demand than usual, and looking at inventory levels sitting at new highs, it begs the question, is now the right time to buy?

At the end of Q1 in March of this year, Tesla ended the quarter with deals on Tesla Model Y in the $5,000 off range, $1k incentive for Cybertruck order holders, referral bonuses, free supercharging, FSD transfer, and free FSD trials. This on top of already lowered prices, it seemed that Tesla was offering everything they could to help push demand into the end of the quarter. Although these offers did help for sure, it was not enough to sell as many vehicles as they made.

This quarter is looking better than Q1, but it is still new territory for Tesla. Traditionally by the end of the quarter, almost all inventory is sold. However, after March, there was a ton of inventory on site at Service Centers around the country. Looking at inventory at my local Service Center today, you can clearly see a large volume of inventory on hand. The overall lot does seem to be slightly lower in inventory than in March, so there are signs things are improving.

But with that, Tesla changed pricing, updated the Model Y RWD to a Long Range version, removed all inventory discounts on new vehicles, even Demo models in inventory discounts are a few hundred dollars instead of thousands. In this same time, input costs have not increased on these vehicles, so it's hard to understand why prices are so high.

Although the Tesla Model Y LR AWD has actually gone down $1k over last quarter, it's actually more expensive, by several thousand dollars, and that is because Tesla removed their inventory discounts. Instead, Tesla has been offering interest rate incentives and lease specials in its stead. This is likely significantly cheaper than the thousands of dollars in markdowns we have grown accustomed to.

The real question is what happens next as we close out the last 30 days of the quarter and 1st half of 2024? With really strong interest rate offers, Tesla has been able to bring monthly payments down for consumers, but for cash buyers, these incentives hardly move the needle. With so much inventory on hand, will Tesla also bring back some inventory discounts?

I think it is likely but not guaranteed that we will see some combination of inventory discounts and other incentives to take delivery by the end of the quarter. Things like FSD trial, discounts for referrals, upgrades for free like paint or interior color, etc. Because of this, I still think there are better deals to be had, and until the Model 3 becomes Tax Credit eligible, I think the issues Tesla faces today will continue.

Once the Refresh Model 3 becomes tax credit eligible, I think we will finally see demand return for the Model 3. Until the Model 3 is significantly less than the Model Y, I just dont see how they move large volumes of the affordable sedan.

Inventory tracking source: tesla-info.com/


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All Comments (21)
  • @belavet
    I bought about two weeks ago and am happy with my purchase. Locked in a November built 2023 seven seater y with a $5050 inventory discount and .99%. I don't know that I can get a deal a hell of a lot sweeter than that, to be quite frank.
  • @BertoTweets
    The amount of money you pay over the loan with 0.99 vs 6.49 is still a bigger discount than the previous inventory discounts if you’re just putting down 5k. If you’re the type to put 50%+ down or all cash then yes inventory discounts are better. But that’s not the majority of people.
  • @msbgone
    I want the Juniper, simply that, refreshed 3 is just too good, but I don't want the sedan.
  • @kevinbecquet
    Wow that quicksilver is just ridiculously good!
  • @jebaker2
    I am picking up a new MYLR in a couple days… couldn’t pass on the 0.9% financing and a good trade-in offer on my 2020 MYLR. My 2020 has so many issues, it’s totally worth it for me!
  • @klantic2
    Great content and information. Thanks for your time, expertise and details!
  • @NewyorkRican2191
    I've been reading about the battery for the current Model Y, and it seems that the upcoming refresh will have the same battery. Additionally, it's been mentioned that the initial version of the refresh may have some flaws, while the latest Model Y doesn't. Considering this, you might want to consider waiting for the second variant of Juniper to avoid any potential issues.
  • @jayp3477
    If you live in LA don't forget about the $300 / month insurance.
  • @Geckogold
    I think the Model Y is suffering from a mini-Osborne effect where some people, after seeing the significant changes in the Highland Model 3, are now willing to wait for the Juniper refresh even though Tesla said it won't be available in 2024. My suggestion is if you're on the fence, but it's your first Tesla, just buy it and start enjoying it today. I'm still having a blast with my 2020 Model Y Performance, and it still puts a smile on my face every day. If you already own a Tesla, then it might be worthwhile to wait, especially if you're upside down/underwater on your loan due to all the price cuts Tesla did last year.
  • @amerkhan4672
    Bought in March 2024. Paid 38k for long range white on white 7 seat. Got acceleration boost,5k supercharging miles, 1 year premium connectivity for free.
  • @JFJ_
    Great deep dive thank you! I’ll hold!
  • @gerryreed5573
    I also saw a parking lot full of model Y cars at my Tesla center in the North East.
  • @1kike31
    What do you think the deals will be come December this year? That is when I’m looking to get a model Y
  • @johnbrion4565
    Thanks. I’m gonna wait till end of quarter. Possibly till end of year as with the refresh there may be large discounts in December. Do you think the refresh will be at a higher price than the current model Y?
  • @mjmellock
    Where do you get your inventory numbers? The charts...
  • @rwferr2
    I was on the Tesla website tonight. Plenty of inventory new model 3 available now you can pick up tomorrow.
  • @ramenandgyoza702
    Took delivery of our MY LR AWD end of march. With the 7500 incentive and 4400 inventory discount, the net price before taxes and fees was $37090. It was too good of a deal to pass since we were in the market to replace our 10yr old crv