Simulating an epidemic
5,148,532
Publicado 2020-03-27
Help fund future projects: www.patreon.com/3blue1brown
An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos.
Special thanks to these supporters: 3b1b.co/sir-thanks
Home page: www.3blue1brown.com/
Awesome fan-made interactives:
prajwalsouza.github.io/Experiments/Epidemic-Simula…
learningsim.itch.io/pandemic-spread-simulation
Simulations by Harry Stevens at the Washington Post:
www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-…
Simulations by Kevin Simler at Melting Asphalt:
meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/
Excellent visualization of each country's current growth from Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia:
• How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19
Another good interactive to see what effect various parameters have on the shape of the curve:
gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
If you want to hear a mathematician/epidemiologist's summary of COVID-19, I found this MSRI talk very worthwhile:
• COVID-19: The Exponential Power of No...
Marcel Salathé on Contact Tracing:
twitter.com/marcelsalathe/status/12424307369442017…
Thanks to these viewers for their contributions to translations
Hebrew: Omer Tuchfeld
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These animations are made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: github.com/3b1b/manim
Code for this video:
github.com/3b1b/videos/blob/master/_2020/sir.py
Honestly, given that the code for that video is meant for demo purposes, and not meant to reflect the true data of COVID-19, if you want to apply these ideas to the current situation I'd recommend looking for more professional epidemiological modeling tools that are less centered around animations and pedagogy and more focused on accurate predictions. For example, the Institute for Disease Modeling has a lot of models free for people to look at and play with.
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Opening music:
Candlepower by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Source: chriszabriskie.com/divider/
Artist: chriszabriskie.com/
Other music by Vincent Rubinetti.
Download the music on Bandcamp:
vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/album/the-music-of-3bl…
Stream the music on Spotify:
open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjwS8FBqXhRunaG5W5u
If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then "add subtitles/cc". I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people.
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Todos los comentarios (21)
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"All models are wrong; some are useful." Thanks for presenting this very useful model!
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3Blue1Brown: "In most towns, people don't actually spend their days drunkenly wandering around the city." New Orleans: "Let me tell you about Mardi Gras."
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I'm an Emergency Medicine Physician with a PhD background in modelling. I am absolutely blown away by your work combining phenomenally effective graphics with practical modelling and a patient methodical, logical argument. Even Edward Tufte would be jealous a what you've done here. Truly one of the best presentations on any topic I've ever seen in my entire life. You deserve a medal and Isaac Newton's chair.
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Its ridiculous how accurate most of this ended up being
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18:00 "It's not a bug, it's a feature!"
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17:58 literally "it's not a bug, it's a feature"
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21:10 this aged really well. in that this is exactly what happened, in the US and Europe and nearly everywhere that initially suppressed it
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“just like the simulations!” has never felt so real
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"Kissing, sneezing on each other, all that good stuff."
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The 100% social distancing model looks oddly crystalline and satisfying.
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There is an interesting tweak that can be done: Separate the "removed" in dead and recovered. Every infected has a probability of becoming dead or recovered. Recovered become Susceptible after a long time (Due to losing the immunity or the virus mutating)
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This shouldn't be a PSA on "Social Distancing," this should be required viewing for Pandemics 101. Great introduction on the thought process and problem solving that can go into epidemiology. As usual, very approachable, 3B1B. Thanks again.
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18:00 Now that’s called thinking outside the box.
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"maybe we don't value the heroes behind them the way we should" Well said
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Right about now you can be saying "I TOLD YOU SO!!!"
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"What if people avoid contact Wich others for a while, but then they kind of get tired and stop?" We don't have to simulate the answer to that question anymore, we have the real life data right here.
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"If they remain unnoticed and spreadable in everyone before becoming lethal." Laughs in Plague Inc.
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18:00 It's funny how a bug made the model more realistic.
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Grant, thank you for this great presentation on simulating an epidemic. These visualizations are outstanding for understanding how the numbers really work.
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Thank you for putting this out. The effectiveness of how you explained this is the best I have seen, in fact, I had to share it because now is the time to understand the impact of your observations.
