COVID-19: The Exponential Power of Now - With Prof. Nicholas Jewell

MSRI / SLMath
MSRI / SLMath
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Published 2020-03-19
Where are we with COVID-19, and how are mathematical models and statistics helping us develop strategies to overcome the burden of infections. Nicholas P. Jewell is Chair of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the London School of Medicine and Tropical Medicine and Professor of the Graduate School (Biostatistics and Statistics) at the University of California, Berkeley.
All Comments (21)
  • @smartereveryday
    This is the video that helped me understand. Pushing it out now.
  • @hansiraber
    thanks for this video, very informative!
  • @gclowne174
    Wow how corteous discussion. It changes from the usual type of talks i generally here, no pompousness, harshness or arrogance
  • @arwahsapi
    2020 Outbreak. Statisticians: "This is our time to shine"
  • @humanrays
    45:00 I had no idea that there was an unusually high amount of info on the Coronavirus from a specialist's point of view, or that a lack of info was the norm for the early stages of a pandemic. This point about waiting for the evidence has always seemed intuitively wrong to me. By the time the "evidence" arrives, it will obviously be far harder to turn things back. If the evidence never arrives but you "overreacted," at least this is a problem that is easier to fix.
  • @bobbob123ful
    I'm curious about the cost of tests - we see that South Korea is 2nd best for testing, but their test is $220USD if negative and free if positive. What does the US charge for a test? It's supposed to be free, but is that true?
  • @BlueSoulTiger
    24:40 this slide - on the value and the limitations of modelling - along with the associated commentary, ought to be compulsory watching for all those outside the modelling community esp. for pundits, reporters, and journalists.
  • @ZappelFly
    40:00 Today is the 26th of march and the US is facing 65.778...
  • @sshine1234
    The test is an RT-PCR , slightly different from PCR.
  • @imranq9241
    It would be amazing if someone could make an interactive web application where someone could play with these parameters: quarantine percentage, central locations, number of communities, infectiousness , travel between communities, and more!
  • @hanniffydinn6019
    My model tracks everyone’s smartphones, hence the most accurate. 🤯
  • @Czeckie
    Did professor Jewell provided the list of literature?
  • @ramiroespadaguerrero
    Could you share the full name of "Li et al, Science 16 March 2020" paper please?
  • @Relayzy1
    Flatten the curve is sadly not every countrys plan, we will have this for a long time.
  • @joakimdahlstrom2532
    There's those fatalities that falls behind the chairs as well, for instance, indirect deaths of corona, and undetected cases of corona that has to be accounted for. By indirect I mean those people with a life threatening condition that are put on hold in favor of hospitalized corona victims which are on news (if you chose to belive them). In sweden we don't test dead people for corona, meaning CFR in this case isn't really helping a lot to get an understanding of the real rate fatality of corona. Also, in sweden the culmination supposedly were going to be in february, in reality the curve is getting steeper and steeper by the hour. Sweden don't test everyone either, only people in the risk zone, and this is due to capabilties which makes sense. But the real infection numbers here should probably be a lot higher than reported. We uneducated in the field, without any information backing this up, pretends that about 5% of the population is within the risk zone (a hopefully high number or we're in a lot worse shape that any goverment want to aknowledge), giving that the number should be at least 20 times to what currently is reported.