Valuation in Four Lessons | Aswath Damodaran | Talks at Google

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Published 2015-02-17
The tools and practice of valuation is intimidating to most laymen, who assume that they do not have the skills and the capability to value companies. In this talk, I propose to lay out four simple propositions about valuation. The first is that valuation is not an extension of accounting, insofar as it is not about recording the past but forecasting the future. The second is that valuation is not just modeling, where people put numbers into Excel spreadsheets and pump out values. A good valuation requires a narrative that binds the numbers together. The third is that valuing an asset or business is very different from pricing that asset or business, a difference that is often blurred in practice. The fourth is that luck plays a disproportionate role in whether you make money off your valuations. Put differently, you can do everything right and still walk away with nothing or worse at the end.

About the Author
I view myself, first and foremost, as a teacher. I do teach valuation and corporate finance not only to MBAs at Stern but to anyone who will listen (on iTunes U, online and on YouTube). I love to write books, teaching material and blog posts. After 30 years of teaching finance, I still find it fascinating as an interplay of economics, psychology and number crunching.

All Comments (21)
  • @mohanvalrani
    Interesting, At the age of 78, I am learning, thank you
  • Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance-wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life..
  • @beejagpalo2146
    What? How on earth i'm being recommended this by Google after 5 years! I should have watched this 5 years ago. OMG, he is so genius.
  • @MURBZrecords
    The world needs more people like Aswath, break free from bureaucratic jargon and see things from a clearer and simpler perspective. Hands down, one of the best lectures I've watched in my life!
  • @DanT-iu6oc
    This is what a god-tier teacher looks and sounds like. absolutely phenomenal. A true treasure of a human being
  • @sergioviana84
    "What sets price? Supply and demand, mood and momentum. What sets value? Cash flows, growth and risk" Geniously simple explanations
  • After an MBA in Finance, and 13 yrs in the Industry - Best Learning Experience. Thank you for putting it up on the web...
  • @marklouis3038
    Im not from the states but honestly there would not a single individual who could hold a candle next to this man..his ideas are complex,he is able to connect with everyone on a level which is so phenomenal ..people in Finance i envy lol esp those folk at NYU Stern ...Sir Damodran please teach us more.
  • That's why the value of good teachers will always be relevant even in this age of AI -ChatGPT etc. I am from Mechanical engineering background but found this whole session so engaging, interesting & informative.
  • 15:00 Numbers people vs. Story people 15:40 The end game is to have numbers people with imagination, and story people with discipline. That's the way to think about valuation. Stories are actually much more effective at selling businesses than numbers are, and it's been true for as long as human beings have been on the earth. So if you tell a story, bring in enough numbers to discipline yourself, because if you don't have the numbers it's very easy to veer away into fantasy land. A good valuation should tell a story — behind the numbers, what is the story you're telling about a company? 29:30 So much of what you pay for in a valuation business is a banker feeding numbers into a [program or software] and then spending 25 days making it look like he did a lot of other stuff, and then charging you millions of dollars — something he has no business charging you for. To valuate businesses like 3M, you don't need an appraiser, you don't need a banker. Anybody should be able to valuate those companies. 33:30 Investing is a game of odds 35:05 Young startups are difficult to valuate, but still you should make your best estimate instead of giving up (like most founders do). 42:50 "I've never felt the urge to explain what some other person pays [for a public company]. Much of what you see passing for valuation out there is really pricing." 44:20 Most realtors simply price based on the relative prices of other properties or units on the marketplace. (pricing vs. sophisticated valuation) 50:30 *Markets are fickle. Today they like users, tomorrow they might not.*They used to like website visitors for a long time, but you can't pay dividends with that. At some point they are going to ask for substance. 51:30 Investing, VC is a game where luck is a dominant paradigm. If you're lucky you can do horribly sloppy things and be incredibly rich. If you're lucky all else can be forgiven. There's no such thing as smart money — there's stupid money and less stupid money, but there is no smart money (i.e. hedge funds, perform less than S&P 500 index fund). 54:20 You learn valuation by doing. If you really want to learn valuation, here's what you do — value a company. The first time you do it, it will be like pulling teeth. Then value a second company, as different from the first as you can. 54:50 When we get big differences in value, it's not because the numbers are different, it's because we have different narratives. The right question you've got to ask is, "What is the right narrative for my company?" This is about telling a story, and delivering the kind of decisions that back up that story. 59:40 If you've got an acquisition proposition, it's going to work only if you're willing to walk away from the table; even if its the best target that you've ever found, but the price is too high. If you're not willing to walk away from the table, you're going to overpay again and again. 1:00:40 Investing [properly] takes time. If you don't have time for that work it's better to invest in an index fund or some other spread; it's best to spread your bets. 1:01:00 Don't overreach. You don't get rich by investing, you get rich by doing what you're doing, and investing is about preserving what you made elsewhere and growing it. It's when you get greedy about trying to make that killing off of your investment that you tend to overreach.
  • This guy literally summed up my entire degree in 1 hour what a great teacher🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
  • @RookieN08
    His valuation on Twitter was spot on. The stock price peaked at $69 a month after its IPO and never reached that price ever again. It fell to $14 in 2016 and now it's been hovering around $28.
  • the most sane talk ever heard about valuation, and it was gold all throughout.
  • @hsetiono
    How To Value A Company: 1. What's the cash flow from existing assets? 2. What's the value that you'll be creating in future growth? 3. How risky are these cash flows? 4. When will your business mature?
  • @Brianlovesrice
    MBA student here, I learned a crap-ton more about the meaning behind accounting terms by this video than I did in my undergrad and masters. "Stockholder's Equity is everything from the first IPO" is not something a typical Accountant would tell you.
  • @saptarshi9433
    Whoa !! i didn't blink my eye during this 1-hour video. Such a magnificent speaker. that's how the best of the best look. And about the substance of his talk, the way he said it, you would end up believing him.
  • @oshiawase
    This is incredible....the quality of learning on YouTube is amazing.