Grid Series Video #2 // How Many Megapack Factories Will Tesla Build?
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2024-07-10に共有
This is Video #2 of the Grid Storage Series.
Monetizing Energy Storage Book:
global.oup.com/academic/product/monetizing-energy-…
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Master Plan Part 3 // U.S. Terawatt hour Estimate
02:50 NREL // The Four Phases of Storage Deployment
05:07 NREL // Trimming the Four Phases Model
06:22 The Four Phases // My Edits
07:59 The Four Phases // Deployment Years
10:45 The Four Phases // Power and Energy Deployment
14:46 The Four Phases // Factoring in Battery Life
18:02 How Many Megapack Factories Does Tesla Need?
22:34 The Risks
23:48 Summary
24:52 Bonus // Megapack Factories to be Built by Country and Year
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said
コメント (21)
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Note: I've been working ahead on some videos to give myself some vacation time. This is one of those videos, and I'm currently on vacation. 🤠 So this video was actually made a few months ago, and this week just turned out to be the perfect time to release it. That's because Tesla just announced and they're quarterly delivery numbers that they have more than doubled mega pack deliveries
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Jordan, that research was impressive, thank you for all your diligent work.
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I thought I caught a hint from Elon that they are looking to do electronics that make their megapacks be able to plug into grid power directly, not requiring transformers. That could add another wrinkle!
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The future is accelerating! I need to watch it again. It matches Tony Seba's/RethinkX's forecast. So many utility companies seem late to get the new paradigm. Thanks again for doing this work.
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If only a company knew 15 or more years ago that battery storage would plummet if they built scale ev and grid storage, and did something about it! TSLA
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Love that you tried determining how many factories they will have to build. I did that exercise for auto factories. One thing that I noticed is that Tesla keeps trying to increase the maximum number of cars they can produce in a factory. I suspect they will do the same for battery packs. Happy to be a patreon supporter
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8h is about sustaining overnight usage while solar is not producing.
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WOW! Always superb work! The energy portion of Tesla was the sleeping giant... that is now waking up. Great to see that it is not only realistic, it is also HIGHLY NEEDED!
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Well done and professional. I love all the actual numbers you use.
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I love these videos! ❤
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Another incredible video!! Thanks for all the hard work to put this together. Well worth the Patreon!!
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Thanks! I think this is the area with Tesla's greatest most immediate potential.
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Lots of information, thank you for putting this all together. Enjoy your vacation!
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It was noted at one of the recent Tesla events that the megapack in now directly connectable to high voltage power lines. There were no specifics given, but they likely recognize the shortage of transformers as a factor limiting deployments, and may be able to work around that with high power, high frequency semi conductors build into the megapack.
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You promised and you (over) delivered. Great work!
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V2G and VPP can hopefully put big dents in the BESS capacity required to decarbonize. Suppose 20M vehicles are placed in service per year; that's 1.5TWh of batteries. Assuming they are used at, say, 25% effectiveness for grid storage, that's a 25% reduction in required BESS manufacturing.
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Thank you for an excellent presentation
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outstanding analysis! 👏
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Thanks for the link to the book!
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Stunning work. Thanks heaps.
