4 Reasons China's Out of Time to Invade Taiwan

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An important but not mentioned part of China's One Child Policy is that in Chinese culture, children bear the burden and responsibility of taking care of their parents in old age. By having only one child, each death could mean the collapse of three families -- their own family, their parents, and their spouse's parents.

Before I retired from the USAF 25 years ago, I warned that adopting the "just in time" logistics model would leave us unable to maintain anything more than a short conflict, but the promise of reduced logistics cost outweighed any such concerns I and others had, and now we're reaping the penalties of that dumb decision.

Thank you for doubling down on the concept that Ukraine is not making the US weaker but it revealed its industrial complex to be weak in critical areas.

You forgot the 5th and maybe most important factor. The huge modernization, growth and improved training of the Japanese military. Who promised to help Taiwan if it was ever attacked. Not to mention all the other surrounding countries that have beef with china (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, India and more).

"they might get old before they get rich..." that hit me in the feels...

As a retired executive who worked for Taiwanese tech companies, I can tell you that Taiwan MAKES the chips but doesn’t DESIGN the chips…Intel, National Semi, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Philips, Siemens etc. are not going to provide designs for a Chinese fab plant. Ain’t happening.

The US won't be alone in helping Taiwan. South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are almost obligated to help in a full-scale war with China due to the proximity of US military bases stationed in those countries.

Since I am currently at an Air Refueling Wing I can say the KC-135R is old as hell but it’s capable, our fleet is small here but we have plenty of room for more KCs and we’re able to support and and provide fuel for all of NATO should it come down to it. Even the KC-46 has its own problems with all the tech onboard. “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”

Another issue is whether China will actually gained that semiconductor Tech if they invade. From what I'm hearing, there are plans on both the Taiwanese an American side to destroy those semiconductor plants in the event of an invasion.

Another factor to consider is that Japan has now woke up to the facts about China's intentions. Japan is now also poring money into it's military and as a close US ally, is rapidly arming itself to counter China's threat. Japan's close to China location gives it strategic advantages. Thus China, in invading Taiwan, would not only risk involving the US, but Japan and other SE Asia countries. Countries that also have ongoing disputes with China such as The Philippines, Indonesia, et al. After watching NATO's effect on the Ukrainian war, China must realize that they are not only going to take on Taiwan and the US, but also Japan and other close by countries protecting their own interests against China's threat as well.

Winnie the Pooh really looking like a Hollywood movie villain.

BTW, It ain't just the US facing off with China. It's also Japan, Australia and possibly India as well with geographical assistance from bases in the Philippines.

One problem with the Chips Act: they’re planning to open semi-conductor fabs in Arizona, as opposed to something like the Great Lakes region, which means if they ever have to produce significant demand, they’re going to deplete the groundwater supplies of the Arizona desert. Fabs are extremely water hungry, such that Taiwan’s freshwater supplies are already stressed by fab production.

It just dawned on me that each of these types of videos are like mini research papers. If I had to pump those out for my history class on a weekly basis, I would definitely fail because I would not be able to meet the deadlines. I greatly appreciate your effort.

Well done video, Chappy. Excellent summary of where things stand today.

I think that TSMC is still pretty unique in their ability to manufacture the best chips and will remain so for some time. Minimizing failure rates, and thus cost, is a really big deal. We can build the factories, but that skill takes decades

Raytheon customer support joke was ingenious, honestly

One of the aspects to this is that China overestimates their population numbers since no middle manager wants to report that their area has a decreasing population (not just aging pop)

I believe China views its window to successfully invade Taiwan as shrinking. The US has awoken to its logistical and technological shortcomings and is moving quickly to address them; Japan is growing the size of its military and adding capabilities it hasn't had since WWII; Australia is expanding the size and capabilities of their military too; and many smaller regional players in southeast China are increasingly wary of China's bullying and are increasingly looking toward the US for assurances. China likely needs to win an invasion of Taiwan quickly -- getting slowed or stuck having only taken a small portion of the western part of the island will put enormous pressure on China to sustain high-end combat.