The Case for a Continued Rally with Warren Pies

Excess Returns
Excess Returns
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Published 2024-07-18
In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.

0:00 Introduction
1:30 The future of the 60/40 portfolio
6:12 Inflation trends and fiscal policy impact
10:09 Labor market and construction sector indicators
15:20 Earnings expectations and potential growth
21:56 AI's impact on productivity
26:28 Market breadth and equal-weighted index performance
31:04 Warren's outlook for second half of 2024
37:11 Newly launched ETF and quality-driven strategy
45:20 Strategic asset allocation recommendations
50:46 Yield levels and stock market performance
55:36 Closing thoughts and wrap-up

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All Comments (14)
  • @darrenritsick4219
    Hit the nail on the head pointing out the originality of the thinking of Warren and 3Fourteen - excellent stuff
  • @s0.0s
    I love how open he is to discussing his strategies!
  • @mfmcintyre
    Invest in the financial markets before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth..
  • @ericUSA1985
    Thoughts on small caps isn’t a fake rally or time to get back in
  • @lawLess-fs1qx
    concerted effort from big money to drop this market at least 10%. They missed the 24% sp500 rally ytd. When sp500 closes the year +35% and they tell their clients they made 8%. Investors will flee. warren got a lot of the calls right over the last 3 years.
  • @keimo2007
    His bearish view on small caps didn't age well.
  • @MichaeldeSousaCruz
    Yes, CPI Increases (which are not inflation) are related to increases in energy prices.
  • @MichaeldeSousaCruz
    Wrong Warren. Get Warren Mosler, MOSLER… not Pies 🥧… Warren Mosler… it’s spelled M-O-S-L-E-R… Warren Mosler… get him on… not this guy. #MMT … otherwise I’m just going to keep taking your money
  • @mfmcintyre
    Invest in the financial markets before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth...