China miscounted its population, now the economy is in crisis | If You're Listening

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Published 2023-09-01
China’s economy is tanking. Similar things are happening across Asia but in China it’s happening extremely fast.
It’s because of the One Child Policy, introduced over 40 years ago to drive up productivity.
Now, after years of fudging the population data, China’s real population has been revealed.
The policy might be over, but the population is going backward, the labour force is retiring, and China is in a world of trouble.
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All Comments (21)
  • @tombranch2261
    The issue isnt just that they were making apartments for now non existent future generations, its also that they were rampantly speculating, which in turn is backfiring.
  • @MorganGarner-bk
    Like a forest fire that wipes out the old trees to make room for new growth, bearish periods ultimately establish a new crop of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a robust new uptrend.I have been reading articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
  • @true2life_SA
    I have witnessed it first hand. I lived in China, Nanjing for a few years. I visited a district in Nanjing called LiShui, the first thing I noticed was all the skyscraper apartments with almost no people around. Most apartments were just empty shells (no windows or fittings) eventhough it was built many years prior
  • @nairbvel
    Was in China in 2010. When in Nanning for a few days, I kept commenting on the fact that it was basically impossible to take a photo of the skyline that didn't include tower cranes. It wasn't quite the same in Guangzhou, but the amount of scaffolding covering smaller construction projects was mind-boggling.
  • @ianhomerpura8937
    That is what happens when people use housing as investments. It's a problem worldwide, even in huge Australia.
  • @AdeleiTeillana
    What's really frustrating is the millions of babies that had to suffer for this policy. From the first twenty years of girls being abandoned - often in fields or trash bins, even to the very recent. My friends became pregnant in 2013 with their second child. They didn't want to abort because of their personal beliefs but faced enormous pressure to do so. They visited every single hospital in the city trying to find one that was willing to deliver the child, only finding one a few days before she was born. (And this was a city the size of NY, so it was quite a lot of hospitals.) The child then had a heart condition that a simple surgery could have fixed, but no doctors were willing to operate since it was a second child. She passed away before she even turned one. And making it all the more heartbreaking was the fact that China lifted the one child policy shortly after this to a two-child policy. My friends are still traumatized by the whole experience.
  • @KriminalKrampus
    "too much housing" is a problem I wish we had over here, honestly.
  • The problem with authoritarian regimes is nobody dares tell the emperor he has no clothes till it’s too late.
  • @harveybirdman74
    Because of unaffordable house prices and rents, there is now a no-child policy in Australia. You can't start a family in a tent.
  • @toffee4ever641
    This reminds me of the saying: strict parents raise sneaky kids
  • I am aware market trends and economic indicators can influence the performance of different investment options, but I've been reading news about people who were still able to make large profits of up to $580k during this crash...... what is the most effective strategy at this time?
  • @Nick-td2ef
    The problem with population census data in China is that it is aggregated from a provincial level. Local governments are incentivised to overstate the number of children in their region so as to receive more funding. Alternative data like vaccination data suggests the number of children is highest overstated, which is true, makes China the fastest ageing country in the world. The other problem is that the largest cohort of the labour force right now are people in their 50s. Retirement age is 60 in China, so the exodus from the labour force is enormous over the next decade. The replacement population just isn’t there.
  • @bigbrendo69
    I’m sure this won’t affect us here in Australia, it’s not like we’ve based our whole economy off selling raw materials to china
  • @junguo3088
    Sitting on the sofa right in my apartment in shanghai china. I heard about this almost 10 years.
  • @albertafu3971
    I’m the 80s born Chinese. Inly child in my family, I grew up with good life. And I experienced the boom if the country economy last 30 years. I now have 2 children and have a good life. In a matter of fact, one child policy was not the most stupid policy in history. 100 years ago, before communism party took over, all female girls had to band feet when they were very young. At least female girls after communism party, don’t have to band feet any more. And also it’s not only Chinese women don’t want to get married and have kids any more, all world wide, most intelligent women don’t want to get married and don’t want to face kids. In hongkong, in Japan, in Singapore these GDP per capital higher than Australia areas have very low birth rate too. Low birth rate is a sign of modernization, believe or not, economy downturn or collapse is also sign of modernization.
  • @grogery1570
    This made me think of a newspaper report dating back to the 80s where the Chinese had discovered several extra million people and now needed to learn where they cam from to meet its population goals. Now I think they never really existed but did get a bureaucrat into a nicer house
  • @PoorMuttski
    property prices in the US and Canada are through the roof, and China has so many homes they are just blowing them up? This world kind of sucks.
  • @seekfunk3536
    Five percent GDP growth this year and that sounds like in crisis. completely.😂
  • Can you provide a source for the "26 year old marriage minimum age" law? As someone who has lived in China for a decade, has a Chinese wife, and has been doing business in china for 15 years, I've never heard of this and neither has my wife.