Four Ways of Thinking: Statistical, Interactive, Chaotic and Complex - David Sumpter

Exactly the reason why i chosed to study mathematics and physics that is to understand the world around me.And i love studying these two subjects.When i study these two subjects properly i get totally involved,you can say i live in those moments fully.

i love this youtube algorithm which recommends random great video just like a random variable

Timestamps: 0:00:02 - Introduction to talk on applied mathematics and thinking styles. 0:03:03 - Ronald Fisher's life and work at Cambridge University. 0:05:57 - Testing if milk affects tea taste with experiments. 0:08:42 - Designing experiments using combinatorics. 0:11:31 - Gary Neville statistic measures player performance after conceding a goal. 0:14:17 - Statistics used to rank top players, limitations of measurement. 0:17:00 - Explaining the limitations of statistics in 10 words. 0:19:46 - Eugenics, smoking, and misuse of statistics. 0:22:25 - Context matters in statistical significance and causation. 0:25:13 - Balanced chemical reactions and ecological models explained with math. 0:27:46 - Mathematical modeling of foxes and rabbits. 0:30:32 - Analysis of applause and social recovery in groups. 0:33:12 - Human behavior equation: non-smiling person + 2 smiley people = 3 smiley people. 0:35:55 - Using physics-based models to scout football players. 0:38:51 - Introduction to chaos theory and Margaret Hamilton. 0:41:29 - Weather simulation error due to decimal input mistake. 0:44:05 - Generating divergent numbers through a simple process. 0:47:06 - Chaos, Margaret Hamilton, and the importance of control. 0:49:55 - Finding balance between order and chaos in life. 0:52:33 - Simple rules create complex patterns in simulations. 0:55:21 - Capturing complexity in science through detailed descriptions. Follow me for more AI

The smoking bit reminds me of a silly anecdote when Bertrand Russell was asked if he was concerned about smoking impacting his health. He said that one time he was going on a flight, and they told him he couldn't smoke on the airplane, so he decided to delay his trip rather than go without smoking for a few hours, and the plane ended up crashing.

Got me thinking already

Needs an Oxford comma in the title, of course.

My statistical way of thinking: of a mindset care for probabilities, historical data, an assessment of assets and liabilities before pursuits of actualization occurs. My interactive way of thinking: of a mindset care that awaits or hunts for societal circumstances that appears to 'door' or facilitate pursuits of actualization. My chaotic way of thinking: of a mindset care for rolling the dice-- a 'just do it' actualization pursuit that minds no statistical odds or favorable circumstances and may even lack certainty of what actualization looks like. It is a pleasant surprise when no sense of chaos follows an unstudied action. My complex way of thinking: of a mindset that utilizes statistical and interactive cognitive intelligence to facilitate pursuits of actualization. I do believe success is most likely when complex thinking is applied. Additionally, the way of thinking determines what the mind is inclined to focus upon; what we focus upon occurs within mindsets. If I am of a Will to think in a manner that invites the possibility of chaos, there would be no consideration of mindsets associated with statistical or interactive thinking. Often, it is the actualization objective and not the Will that dictates the mind's cognitive cascade options-- care of success demands management of one's Will, usually. There is a control 'care' in mathematical logic; through an understanding or a care of the answer, one controls the problem. The lecture's turn towards discerned marital controls that are implemented and sustained, if "care" exists, is of complex thinking that minds objective (statistical) and subjective (interactive) truths. The identified existential marital problem has a determined answer that is not natural within our lecturer-- conscious, willful "control" of his natural inclinations is the answer that he believes "care" will sustain. If a strong "care" becomes weakly felt, the answer and the "manipulations required" will feel a key to a prison versus a key to greater marital happiness; sustaining a marital reality that survives upon an unnatural answer, of little care, is difficult-- even grit requires passion to exist in its application. Addendum: What is in grit? A Will to persevere, despite any headwinds of statistical and/or interactive inform. What does perseverance require? A deeply held belief that a pursuit will see actualized success. What is in belief? A measured patience that is governed by an adjustable long view. When the long view dies, all that underpins grit dies; grit may require an ability to visualize and intensely feel an anticipated actualization of victory. What a grit-gifted victorious actualization satisfies is dependent upon the state of one's ego and other psychological influences; a satisfied ego (no circumspect psychological insecurities or of a felt need to proof/validate identity associations of gender, abilities, intelligence, etc.), scar-free interactive psychological truth (never felt derisively underestimated or had declared goals disparaged and/or discouraged) and/or of no passion to defy odds-- less likely to endure pursuits of actualization that requires grit. Some form of anticipated internal resolution, validation or balm-- beyond the externalized actualization pursuit-- exists in the long view of a grit-driven pursuit, I believe.

For the curious, Dr. Muriel aced the tea test and thereby hoisted Fisher on his own petard.

Why not change the title to “three ways of thinking” ? One can hardly not feel abused (time wise) when told “go buy the book” for the fourth-complex!

Great lecture! Thanks

If you are not a gritty person, it's OK, there's lots of ways your life can succeed. YES THANK YOU!!!

This was one of the best lectures ive ever watched in my life. Loved it

Thanks for the talk! I enjoyed watching it with my kid!

Great lecture, thank you for posting it!

55:11 A pattern is as complex as the length of the shortest description that can be used to produce it. Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov

A bit more intuition on the "Complex" segment would have made it a lot more worthwhile, it while being a brilliant talk without a doubt. The two examples were good, but I guess it needed a few more words from him. I suppose the time limitation at hand...

Yin-yang is chaotic manifestations; taiji is the orderly existence of the whole... if I was to apply this side of classical Chinese philosophy. This of course in no way detracts from what a great talk this is. Thank you!

John Maynard Keynes 'principle of uncertainty' in economics states that we can predict the very near future with some degree of success, but the more distant, the more uncertain we become; thus, mathematical modelling in economics is not a science of absolutes; rather, it's a social science of human infinite variability—a perfect example of chaos theory. Daniel Kahneman later backed this up in behavioural economic theory. Also Adam Smith wrote, that the market in the long run will return to an equilibrium, to which Keyens replied, in the long run we're all dead! (ie the disaster that was 1930s and the 2010s, both unnecessary suffering, we can always afford a war, so let's win the peace.

That was a well-coordinated crowd at the end.

Very interesting, highly recommended